Nationwide assessment of the climate sensitivity of natural hazard processes in Switzerland A fuzzy logic approach

Peter Mani and Stéphane Losey

Information about the changes that may be expected with respect to natural hazard processes is crucial to the development of climate change adaptation strategies. To assess the impacts of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard processes, a methodology was developed, which is based on existing spatial data, literature analyses and expert knowledge and uses fuzzy logic to assess the sensitivity of natural hazard processes to changes in the climate. Evaluation rules were defined for an intermediate and an extreme climate scenario in the case of gravitational processes, avalanches, debris flows and torrent processes. The results of the study present a differentiated view of the changes to be expected as a function of the regions and processes involved. The greatest changes may be expected in the Alps. Permafrost degradation and changes in water availability result in an increase in the frequency and magnitude of rock fall. The frequency of small and medium-sized torrent processes will increase significantly for the same reason.

2016/1 345-355